Wimbledon Women's Draw 🎾 Picks, Paths, Upset Alerts
Will Swiatek warm up to grass further, in-form players and some Wimbledon trivia
Every year, grass season starts with some controversy over its existence. It’s too ancient, it’s too slippery, it’s too expensive to maintain. All of that noise turns into eager silence by the time the defending men’s champion and his opponent take on Centre Court at exactly 13:00 on the first Monday of Wimbledon.
It is the 140th year that Wimbledon will hold a women’s singles tournament and the fun thing is, yet another year, I have no idea who will win it. Let’s break the draw down to make it a bit easier.
SUMMARY
TOP HALF
Swiatek (1) vs. Vondrousova (6) — Swiatek leads H2H 4-0
Rybakina (4) vs. Pegula (5) — Pegula leads H2H 3-1
BOTTOM HALF
Sabalenka (3) vs. Zheng (8) — Sabalenka leads H2H 2-0
Gauff (2) vs. Paolini (7) — Gauff leads H2H 2-0
Full draw here.
DETAILED LOOK AT THE DRAW
1st Quarter
Top seeds: Swiatek (1), Vondrousova (6), Collins (11), Ostapenko (13)
Summary: We start with the no. 1 seed’s quarter. Grass and indoor hard courts are where Swiatek has had the least success in her career — don’t let that fool you, though. Last year, she was two points away from the semi finals before losing to an inspired Svitolina.
Swiatek’s game is perfectly made for slower courts, which Wimbledon has been known to get closer to in the past few decades. Yet the low bounce has famously rushed her forehand. But her backhand can shine on the surface. Her slightly adjusted serve can also become a show case at SW19 (her serve points won % is flat vs. last year). She has not played any warm-up tournaments this year due to the volume of matches of her season (she is on a 19 match winning streak), but she looked very positive in her pre-tournament press conference. Wins over good grass court players Martic and Bencic might have done a lot for her confidence.
Her draw is, yet again, anything but straight-forward. She opens against Sofia Kenin, who shocked Coco Gauff in the 1st round of Wimbledon last year. Kenin might not be at the top of her form, but she loves playing on the big stage. Swiatek won both of the matches they played (2020 RG final, 2024 AO 1st round); and I think she’ll win again — but this one might be much trickier than the other two they played.
Swiatek can face Martic in 2nd round, whom she beat in 3rd round last year. Her 3rd round opponent can be anyone! Siniakova (27) will play the in-form qualifier Stakusic; the winner of that match will play the winner of 2018 champion Kerber vs. Birmingham champion Putintseva. Whoever survives those 2 rounds might get Iga, isn’t that a nice draw?
Ostapenko (13) vs. Tomljanovic is another mean opening round draw. Tomljanovic won 8 matches in the lead-up and is a 2-time quarter finalist. Ostapenko won just one match on grass this year, but you know, she is Ostapenko. Their only other match at Wimbledon was popcorn material for many reasons, but it looks like truce was made recently. This match is one to watch!
This quarter is so good that it’s only now that I can mention that the defending champion Marketa Vondrousova (6) is here. Her two opening rounds look like favorable draws; but third round can be tricky. Krejcikova (31), Kudermetova or even Volynets (who is 13-2 this past month) might provide a too tough of a test. Although she doesn’t have the best Wimbledon résumé and she didn’t have the best injury comeback, I have a feeling Krejcikova might cause an upset in this section.
Who wins it: Swiatek (1)
Upset/Dark horse: Krejcikova (31)
Watch out for: Kenin, Stakusic (Q), Snigur (Q), Tomljanovic, Galfi (Q), Volynets (Q)
2nd Quarter
Top seeds: Rybakina (4), Pegula (5), Jabeur (10), Samsonova (15)
Summary: “The fate of this section depends on no 4 seed Elena Rybakina’s health” is how I started my Roland Garros preview for Rybakina’s section; and unfortunately, this still holds true.
Regardless, it is a tough section; look at all these names:
Berlin champion Jessica Pegula (5) sits at the bottom of the quarter
Runner-up in 2022 and 2023, Ons Jabeur (10) can face Pegula in 4th round
Leylah Fernandez (30), runner-up at Eastbourne, can face Rybakina in 3rd round — but she would first need to go through Bronzetti and the winner of Wozniacki vs. Parks. Alycia Parks is on a 9-match winning streak. That serve is serving.,
Anna Kalinskaya (17) almost won Berlin squandering 5 match points against Pegula. She can face 2022 quarter-finalist Bouzkova in 2nd round.
s’Hertogenbosch winner Liudmila Samsonova (15), last year’s semi finalist Elina Svitolina (21) and Nottingham champion Katie Boulter (32) are all here as well. Boulter will open against 2022 semi finalist Tatjana Maria.
And a very tasty first-round match between two former quarter finalists: Viktorija Golubic vs. Jule Niemeier.
Sometimes one just wonders if Wimbledon’s own seeding calculation (favoring those players who had favorable grass results in past 2 years) shouldn’t have been scrapped.
This time I will not pick Rybakina despite her amazing grass game and go for the one who has a very tough draw: Ons Jabeur. 2 years of making the finals should surely bring some confidence, right? (Note: Arantxa Sanchez followed her consecutive Wimbledon finals of 1995-96 with a semi final in 1997) I should add that Jabeur retired from the last match she played (in Berlin).
Who wins it: Jabeur (10)
Upset/Dark horse: Kalinskaya (17)
Watch out for: Parks (Q), Bouzkova, Gadecki (Q), Golubic vs. Niemeier, Maria
3rd Quarter
Top seeds: Sabalenka (3), Zheng (8), Sakkari (9), Kasatkina (14)
Summary: After those two grueling quarters, one had to be softer, right? It’s this one right here. Courtesy of a shoulder injury that has Aryna Sabalenka (3) in doubt even for her first match, so many players could make the semis here. That presser, where she mentions that the injury affects her serve, altered my predictions.
Zheng Qinwen (8) and Maria Sakkari (9) are the top seeds in the upper part of the quarter. Zheng had limited grass experience in her career, but she has a nice draw. Sakkari is another story. She split with coach David Witt after 3.5 months of working together. She is on an infamous 5-Slam streak of losing before 3rd round. Also, McCartney Kessler might be not the ideal first-round opponent on grass.
The two dangerous/in-form players in this section drew each other in the first round: Emma Raducanu will play Ekaterina Alexandrova on Centre Court on opening day. Nice one for the Brits (although I’m slightly favoring Alexandrova here).
Daria Kasatkina (14) just won Eastbourne and has an okay draw. She could face a real test in 3rd round in Mirra Andreeva (24), Paula Badosa or Karolina Muchova (she is back!) Then… a 4th round against Sabalenka?
Sabalenka has a few rivalries but the one against Donna Vekic doesn’t come to mind immediately. Vekic, who is one of the few grass-prone players (60% win rate - her best across 3 surfaces), leads their H2H 6-2 and beat Sabalenka this year in Dubai. She is also coming off of a final in Bad Homburg (l. to Shnaider). Will Vekic cause frustration once again for Sabalenka? Even if not, I’m sure she’ll make a dent. And that’s why my predictions are as follows…
Who wins it: Kasatkina (14)
Upset/Dark horse: Alexandrova (22)
Watch out for: Raducanu (WC), Muchova
4th Quarter
Top Seeds: Gauff (2), Paolini (7), Keys (12), Azarenka (16)
Summary: Last quarter is also relatively soft in terms of its seeds; but there’s plenty of talent that might stir it up and provide fun matches.
Coco Gauff (2) is the top seed of the quarter. Last year’s Wimbledon was defining for Gauff as her opening round loss against Kenin caused a butterfly effect that contributed to her first Grand Slam win at the US Open. As a 15-year-old, she had won 6 matches and made the 2nd week as a qualifier. Since then, her 5-3 record at the Championships has been the least impressive among her Grand Slam results. But her draw looks like it can regrow Gauff’s confidence on grass. She can face Cirstea (29) in 3rd round and then a player who has come through maybe the toughest and funnest section of the draw in the 4th round.
Azarenka/Stephens, Pliskova/Shnaider, Osaka/Parry, Wang Q/Navarro are all promising 1st round matches in terms of quality. Whoever makes it to the 4th round might face Gauff.
On the upper part of this quarter, there are respectable names in one of last year’s quarter finalists Madison Keys (12), Roland Garros runner-up Jasmine Paolini (7), Linda Noskova (26) and s’Hertogenbosch runner-up Bianca Andreescu. Keys, who I think has upped the percentage tennis part of her strategy this year, can have a good run here and go one step further than her result last year.
Who wins it: Keys (12)
Upset/Dark Horse: Paolini (7) — with her ranking, calling her an ‘upset’ might not make much sense; but, she had *zero* tour level wins on grass until last month.
Watch out for: Andreescu (PR), Pliskova/Shnaider, Osaka/Parry
DON’T MISS THESE FIRST ROUNDS
Swiatek vs. Kenin 🔥🔥
Putintseva vs. Kerber 🔥
Siniakova vs. Stakusic
Ostapenko vs. Tomljanovic 🔥🔥
Krejcikova vs. Kudermetova
Jabeur vs. Uchijima
Boulter vs. Maria
Pegula vs. Krueger
Alexandrova vs. Andreescu 🔥🔥
Sakkari vs. Kessler
Badosa vs. Muchova 🔥
M Andreeva vs. B Fruhvirtova
DID YOU KNOW…
Suzanne Lenglen became the first player to win all three titles in the same year in 1920 (singles, doubles, mixed doubles).
In 1922, rain every day of the tournament caused it to finish on the *third* Wednesday.
Australian Jan Lehane was the first woman to use a double-handed backhand (1960).
The 1988 edition was the first Wimbledon where no player used a wooden racquet.
In 1991, radar guns were introduced on Centre Court to measure serve speed.
(Source: Wimbledon, The Official History by John Barrett)
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— Gökalp
