Wimbledon Men's Draw 🍓 Picks, Paths, Upset Alerts
Djokovic is playing, Murray is probably not, Sincaraz's path
Compared to a month ago, men’s tour is much clearer. Top players pulled it together at Roland Garros making the scene less unpredictable. There is of course intrigue: 7-time champion Novak Djokovic has hit the courts in less than a month after having a knee surgery and is feeling well. But, is he fit enough to go all the way? Andy Murray is likely to say goodbye to the British crowd (probably on the doubles court with his brother Jamie). Jannik Sinner is coming to Wimbledon as world no. 1 and with a recent grass-court title. Finally, there is the defending champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Let’s kick the men’s draw off.
SUMMARY
TOP HALF
Sinner (1) vs. Medvedev (5) — Medvedev leads H2H 6-5
Alcaraz (3) vs. Ruud (8) — Alcaraz leads H2H 4-0
BOTTOM HALF
Zverev (4) vs. Rublev (6) — Zverev leads H2H 6-3
Djokovic (2) vs. Hurkacz (7) — Djokovic leads H2H 7-0 (2 wins at Wimbledon)
Full draw here.
DETAILED LOOK AT THE DRAW
1st Quarter
Top seeds: Sinner (1), Medvedev (5), Dimitrov (10), Shelton (14)
Summary: Jannik Sinner, the new world no. 1, is coming to Wimbledon with his 1st ever grass-court title (Halle) after having defeated Griekspoor, Marozsan, Struff, Zhang and Hurkacz. He won his first 3 matches in 3 sets. All that to say: He has plenty of grass warm-up in his legs by now. After losing to Djokovic at Wimbledon in the last 2 years, he finally doesn’t have to face him until the final. World no. 1 is the clear favorite of this top quarter.
It was one of the big questions where former finalist Berrettini, a player with 79% win rate, 4 titles and another 2 finals on grass (!), would land in the draw; and it’s here. Sinner could face him in the 2nd round. What a match that would be. Berrettini made it to the finals in Stuttgart (l. to Draper), he just loves the surface. Still, I feel the world no. 1 will find a way to win with his increasing number of weapons.
Last year’s semi finalist Daniil Medvedev (5) is at the bottom of this quarter. He is having a curious 2024 season. His last tournament was in May 2023, in Rome of all places. Since Indian Wells, he is yet to make another final. He lost to Zhang Zhizhen (32) in Halle, whom he is slated to face in 3rd round. A tough 1st week might await the tall Russian. Grigor Dimitrov (10) might pull one out of the hat, although he made it to the quarter finals just *once* at Wimbledon, in 2014 (last year, he lost to Rune in 4R).
Who wins it: Sinner (1)
Upset/Dark horse: Dimitrov (10)
Watch out for: Berrettini, Harris (Q), Garin (Q), Monfils, Struff, Shapovalov
2nd Quarter
Top seeds: Alcaraz (3), Ruud (8), Paul (12), Humbert (16)
Summary: Last year, the one who won Queen’s went on to win Wimbledon. This quarter features this year’s Queen’s champion - and it’s not Carlos Alcaraz (2). Tommy Paul (12) lost just one set to win the elite warm-up tournament beating Draper, Korda and Musetti in its final 3 rounds. He might well make the quarter finals as the top seed in his section is Casper Ruud (8), the Viking who likes grass only when playing golf. In quarter finals though, the defending champion might await.
Carlos Alcaraz (3) lost the only match he played on grass to Jack Draper in a tight straight-setter. He is in a positive mood, though. At his press conference, he looked eager to take on the Channel Slam challenge (winning Roland Garros and Wimbledon in the same year). Last year, he impressed everyone with how quickly he adjusted his footwork and game plan to grass. His aggressive game plan full of winners and net play maybe did not need much tweaking; but the footwork clearly did. He almost never slid and made the most of his tiny brake steps and fast but cautious direction changing ability. He said he studies the movement of a few more people this year: Federer, Murray, Nadal, Djokovic and (he’s not going to lie) himself.
He has a nice draw too. He starts off against Lajal (Q), who seemed confident on Instagram. In 2nd round, he will face the winner of Mallorca finalist Ofner vs. Eastbourne semi finalist Vukic. In 3rd round, he is set to face Frances Tiafoe (29), but the American is having his worst season (recently worsened by a fall at Queen’s). In 4th round, he could face Ugo Humbert (2-3 at Wimbledon in past 3 years). All in all, a nice draw for the Spaniard.
Who wins it: Alcaraz (3)
Upset/Dark horse: —
Watch out for: Arnaldi, Bergs (Q), Mensik
3rd Quarter
Top seeds: Zverev (4), Rublev (6), Tsitsipas (11), Fritz (13)
Summary: Recent Roland Garros finalist Alexander Zverev is the top seed of the 3rd quarter. He gave a good headline at his pre-tournament press conference saying he thinks he can win it here. He elaborated by saying this is maybe the first time he came to Wimbledon to compete and that this might the most open men’s draw in a long time. Two things: 1) He never made it to the quarters here. 2) Has he seen his draw?
In 3rd round, Zverev could face Stuttgart champion home favorite Jack Draper (28). In 4th round, his opponent could be Eastbourne champion Taylor Fritz (13) or Mallorca champion Alejandro Tabilo (24). That’s a tough road to just the quarters.
Upper half of the quarter features last year’s quarter finalist Andrey Rublev (6), Stefanos Tsitsipas (11), and two players who had deep runs at Queen’s: Sebastian Korda (20) and Lorenzo Musetti (25). The latter two might do something here as Rublev has been having a rough season (Madrid title apart) and Tsitsipas never made it to the quarter finals at Wimbledon.
Korda, though, might have wished his original 1st round opponent would have stayed in the draw. He will face the very much in-form lucky loser Mpetsci Perricard.
From this complicated section, I’ll go with Taylor Fritz. The American no. 1 had a lot of match wins and a grass title this year. He’ll want to at least repeat his quarter final run in 2022 (what a match that was against Nadal!)
Who wins it: Fritz (13)
Upset/Dark horse: Draper (28)
Watch out for: Mpetschi Perricard
4th Quarter
Top Seeds: Djokovic (2), Hurkacz (7), De Minaur (9), Rune (15)
Summary: Novak Djokovic… It’s been years that I have had maybe the slightest doubt about him which was thrown in my face with force. Again, I was silly… in thinking that he would miss Wimbledon altogether. After a knee surgery he had after Roland Garros, he has made it in time for the Championships. He even won an exhibition match against Daniil Medvedev, and he says he is here to win it all!
He gave so much insight at his press conference as usual: He accepts that his knee is a risk, but also states that he had intense practice session with the best in the world (including Sinner) and his knee held up fine in the most critical aspects like sudden changes of direction. This is thanks to a successful rehab process (before which he consulted fellow athletes who had similar injuries in Taylor Fritz, Stan Wawrinka and Lindsay Vonn) and the knee not feedbacking any kind of setback. Knowing that…
Novak Djokovic becomes the favorite of not just his quarter but a big one for the Championships. He is chasing to equal Federer’s 8 Wimbledon titles and for him to do that he might need to face the following players: Tomas Etcheverry (30) in 3rd round, Holger Rune (15) or Karen Khachanov (21) in 4th round, Halle finalist & familiar Wimbledon foe Hubert Hurkacz (7) or s’Hertogenbosch Alex de Minaur (9) in quarter finals. It’s a nice first 4 rounds for the 7-time champion. Even with a tougher draw, his main opponent in these circumstances would be his knee. Let’s see how he will manage this one.
Andy Murray is in this side of the draw for now, but he might not be there for long. He signalled his intention to only play doubles with his brother Jamie. Tomas Machac might face a lucky loser in the end. We’ll be there to watch that doubles game for sure.
Who wins it: Djokovic (2)
Upset/Dark Horse: de Minaur or Rune would be too high of seeds for this section, so I’ll leave it blank.
Watch out for: Fils, Jubb (WC), Nardi
DON’T MISS THESE 1ST ROUNDS
Berrettini vs. Fucsovics
Shapovalov vs. Jarry (underway as this newsletter is sent!)
Garin vs. Shang
Medvedev vs. Kovacevic
Vukic vs. Ofner
Korda vs. Mpetschi Perricard
Tabilo vs. Evans
Fils vs. Stricker
Auger-Aliassime vs. Kokkinakis
de Minaur vs. Duckworth
Khachanov vs. Karatsev
DID YOU KNOW…
The first time finals were scheduled on Sunday was in 1982.
Wimbledon is known for its rain; but in 1994, a record temperature of 46.7°C was recorded on the last day.
In 2003, Wimbledon starring Kirsten Dunst and Paul Bettany were shot (during the tournament!)
In 2007, equal prize money was awarded for the first time.
(Source: Wimbledon, The Official History by John Barrett)
READY… PLAY.
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Wishing everybody a great Wimbledon. You can find me on Twitter here.
— Gökalp
