Roland Garros Women's Draw 🎾 Picks, Paths, Upset Alerts
Merci mesdames et messieurs... Les joueuses sont prêtes !
It’s that time of year: Baguettes, croissants, good wine and even snails if you are feeling adventurous. Tennis players might not go either of the first three (everyone is gluten/dairy/alcohol free nowadays) and the only thing resembling a snail experience might be the slow clay courts that famously reward the most tenacious of them all. Are you ready for Roland Garros?
If not, this draw preview is designed to get you ready for it. Men’s draw preview (spoiler: draw disaster - Nadal v Zverev, 1st round are you kidding me) will be next.
SUMMARY
TOP HALF
Swiatek (1) vs. Vondrousova (5)
Swiatek leads H2H 3-0 incl. 1st Round at RG 2020
Gauff (3) vs. Jabeur (8)
Gauff leads H2H 4-2, Gauff won at RG 2021
BOTTOM HALF
Rybakina (4) vs. Zheng (7)
Rybakina leads H2H 2-0
Sabalenka (2) vs. Sakkari (6)
Sabalenka leads H2H 7-3, never played at a Slam
Full draw here.
DETAILED LOOK AT THE DRAW
1st Quarter
Top seeds: Swiatek (1), Vondrousova (5), Collins (11), Alexandrova (15)
Summary: Let’s start with the quarter of the tournament host, world no. 1 Iga Swiatek. Since the turn of the decade, Swiatek has won 25 matches and lost just 1 at Roland Garros. She played the tournament 5 times and winning it thrice; and she’s still 22 (at least for another week). She is also on a 12-match winning streak (incl. 2 wins over Sabalenka and 1 over Gauff) after pulling off a rare Madrid-Rome double last month.
Not only is it extremely hard to challenge Iga with her current form, but her draw is quite open until quarter finals too. Almost no player in her section accumulated impressive wins on clay this season: 29th seed Kudermetova, quarter finalist in 2022, did not win a match across Madrid and Rome. 16th seed Alexandrova has won 1 match out of 6 on clay this year. 2021 champion Krejcikova, who is coming back from injury, is also 0 for 3 on clay. Add to Swiatek’s winning streak happy spirits: She was playing tennis with none other than Monica Geller in Paris. Could she be more ready to win another Roland Garros?
Lower half of the quarter is more fun with 2 key players present: 2019 Roland Garros finalist and defending Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova (5) and Danielle Collins (11). It’s so much fun to watch Collins this year. The 30-year-old American is providing a very unique fan experience: At the start of the year, she announced that 2024 would be her last season. Normally that sort of announcement is followed by unfit and hard-to-watch performances to the point of second-hand embarassment at times. Collins is doing the opposite and playing the best tennis of her life. She recently told Andy Roddick that Olympic qualification was a big source of motivation — and now she wants to qualify for WTA Finals (where only top 8 players can go). She won a whopping 34 matches this year. And I don’t who can stop her (hoping she doesn’t face any health challenges) until a quarter final against Swiatek.
Vondrousova (5) and Kostyuk (18) are always tricky players but have not so much form since their deep runs at the Stuttgart indoor tournament.
Who wins it: Swiatek (1)
Upset/Dark horse: Collins (11)
Watch out for: Shnaider, Niemeier
2nd Quarter
Top seeds: Gauff (3), Jabeur (8), Ostapenko (9), Haddad Maia (13)
Summary: Here is a section that can go different ways. We have Coco Gauff (3) who reached at least the quarter finals in her last 3 Roland Garros appearances (including her run to the final in 2022). Also, her favorite city is Paris. We have last year’s semi finalist Beatriz Haddad Maia (13) who had to beat Ons Jabeur (8) in the quarter final. And we have the 2017 Roland Garros champion Jelena Ostapenko (9).
Jabeur has been very hard to predict this year. Highlight of her year was reaching the quarter final in Madrid where she lost to Keys after winning the first set 6-0. Haddad Maia was another quarter finalist at that tournament (l. to Swiatek). Ostapenko was in the last 8 of Rome (l. to Sabalenka). Similar levels of form among these with 3 with similar levels of draw difficulty (maybe a bit tougher for Ostapenko).
When it comes to Gauff though, despite not playing her best tennis recently, she feels a class above the other top 3 seeds in this section. When she played Swiatek in the semi finals of Rome, she did many things right including some brilliant forehand cross-court attacks. She did double fault on break points more than once though. Good news for her is that she has a kind draw: a qualifier possibly in the first two rounds (although one might be former semi finalist Zidansek), then a player who would rather play her on faster surfaces.
Who wins it: Gauff (3)
Upset/Dark horse: Haddad Maia (13)
Watch out for: Tauson, Kenin, Osorio
3rd Quarter
Top seeds: Rybakina (4), Zheng (7), Paolini (12), Svitolina (15)
Summary: The fate of this section depends on no 4 seed Elena Rybakina’s health, which turned her season into an ‘all or nothing’ show. Rybakina won 3 tournaments this year, gave Swiatek her sole loss on clay but also had to withdrew from important tournaments like Indian Wells and most recently Rome (as defending champion).
Roland Garros has been of a complicated story for Rybakina - she is a former quarter finalist here and she also beat Serena at what became Serena’s final match in Paris. She also lost two heartbreakers back-to-back (9-7 in the 3rd to Pavlyuchenkova and 7-6 in the 3rd to Keys) and had to withdraw with illness last year having just won Rome. If she is fit, why not another run to the quarters?
Finalist at this year’s Australian Open, Zheng Qinwen is the second highest seed in this quarter. She is coming off of a quarter final run in Rome and scored a good win against Halep here two years ago. A Zheng-Paolini fourth round match-up (Palermo final rematch) would be a fun one!
Elina Svitolina (15), a 4-time quarter finalist at Roland Garros, is also in this quarter. Unfortunately for her, she doesn’t seem to be in that same breathtaking form as she was last year. She opens against Pliskova (H2H 4-4).
And how about that potential Rybakina-Kerber 2nd round? Fun stuff.
Who wins it: Rybakina (4)
Upset/Dark horse: Svitolina (15)
Watch out for: Pavlyuchenkova (20), Carle
4th Quarter
Top Seeds: Sabalenka (2), Sakkari (6), Kasatkina (10), Keys (14)
Summary: For me, this is the toughest section with the highest number of in-form players. Aryna Sabalenka (2) is the clear favorite though, make no mistake. She was a point away from reaching the final last year. In Madrid and Rome, she lost to Swiatek in the final. Despite two losses, she was in good spirits in Rome challenging her rival for another finals showdown in Paris. The tiger is alive.
Here we also have Sakkari (6), who is looking good physically and mentally since her coaching change in March. The Greek player might face last year’s semi finalist Kasatkina (10) in the 4th round (H2H 4-1 Kasatkina). Whatever change Madison Keys (14) did on her racquet seems to be working well: The American won 10 matches on clay season (career best pre-RG) and will play the Strasbourg final against Danielle Collins. There are other tricky names like Azarenka (19), Noskova (27), Badosa, M. Andreeva, Stephens and Putintseva, all piled up in this last quarter. If only we could reshuffle the draw.
Shout out to our own Zeynep Sonmez who became the first player from Turkey to play Roland Garros main draw since 2017. She has a tough first round against Emma Navarro (12) who reached the final of the WTA Paris Challenger recently.
Who wins it: Sabalenka (2)
Upset/Dark Horse: Kasatkina (10)
Watch out for: Putintseva/Stephens, Riera, M. Andreeva
DON’T MISS THESE EARLY ROUNDS
ROUND 1
Haddad Maia vs. Cocciaretto
Anisimova vs. Sramkova
Kalinskaya vs. Burel
Paolini vs. Saville
Svitolina vs. Pliskova 🔥
Putintseva vs. Stephens 🔥🔥
Sabalenka vs. E Andreeva
POTENTIAL ROUND 2 MATCHES
Swiatek vs. Osaka 🔥
Ostapenko vs. Tauson 🔥
Garcia vs. Kenin
Jabeur vs. Osorio 🔥
Svitolina vs. Parry 🔥
Rybakina vs. Kerber 🔥🔥
Azarenka vs. M Andreeva 🔥
WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING
Leolia Jeanjean won 3 matches to qualify for the main draw. Her reward: A first round match against Iga Swiatek. Her reaction: 🥲
Team Sabalenka’s pre-Slam dance videos are becoming a trend. And maybe a superstition 🙃
READY… PLAY.
Thanks for reading. I’ll try to post after every round during Roland Garros and a men’s draw post will follow.
Comment your predictions, upset/dark horse picks. And if you liked this newsletter, please share! It will help this new newsletter reach many more people if you do.
Wishing everybody a great Roland Garros. You can find me on Twitter here.
— Gökalp
