Roland Garros Men's Draw 🥐 Picks, Paths, Upset Alerts
Merci mesdames et messieurs... Les joueurs sont prêts !
Mayhem. Nothing else can describe the men’s draw at Roland Garros this year. Even before the draw was released, it felt all up in the air. Djokovic recently playing like he has somewhere else to be, Alcaraz and Sinner with injuries… Consider this: Carlos Alcaraz is the oddmakers’ favorite to win the whole thing — in a season where he skipped Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome due to injury. What an oddity for a men’s draw. And that’s not even the bombshell.
All of tennis world was curious where 14-time champion Rafael Nadal would land in the draw, as this is the first time he is unseeded at a major since 2005 Australian Open. It was 4th seed Alexander Zverev who pulled the short straw. Nadal vs. Zverev, first round. Are you kidding me?
SUMMARY
TOP HALF
Djokovic (1) vs. Ruud (7)
Djokovic leads H2H 5-1, including a win in last year’s RG final
Zverev (4) vs. Medvedev (5)
Medvedev leads H2H 12-7, including 2-0 lead on clay
BOTTOM HALF
Alcaraz (3) vs. Rublev (6)
H2H tied at 1-1, Rublev won the only match on clay in Madrid this year
Sinner (2) vs. Hurkacz (8)
H2H tied at 2-2, Sinner won the only match on clay in Monte Carlo last year
Full draw here.
DETAILED LOOK AT THE DRAW
1st Quarter
Top seeds: Djokovic (1), Ruud (7), Fritz (12), Paul (14)
Summary: 2024 is one of only two years where Novak Djokovic comes to Paris not having reached a single final in the year. The other time was 2018. That year was Djokovic’s comeback from elbow injury year, but there are parallels between the two years in inexplicable losses and uncharacteristic loss of motivation.
Djokovic played just 4 tournaments this year after the Australian Open and lost to Luca Nardi (#123), Casper Ruud (#10), Alejandro Tabilo (#32) and Tomas Machac (#44). All of those matches had different stories, but they had a somewhat overarching theme of surprising ambiguity. That feeling almost always disappears for Djokovic in the first week of a major. For that reason, I expect him to advance to the second week with relative comfort. He might face a proper test in the third round against Seyboth Wild who beat Medvedev here last year or Musetti who famously took a 2 sets to 0 lead against Djokovic here a few years ago. My gut feel says we’ll watch the Brazilian in that round.
The other high seed in this quarter is Casper Ruud (7), one of the 3 players who beat Djokovic on clay in 2024. Ruud is coming to Paris with career best 34 season wins (or 35 depending on the Geneva final), his previous best being 24. He reached the finals of Monte Carlo and won Barcelona. This is clearly his year to make a move. When I watched him in Estoril, I got the sense that he was in the process of going up a gear in his game - especially with his forehand speed and serve overall. I’m not sure if that process is advanced enough yet for him to win matches against the top 4. Also, his backhand can still be exposed relatively easily by Djokovic. He will start against Meligeni Alves and might have a tricky second round opponent in Davidovich Fokina (who beat him here in 2021 in 5 sets); and even tougher test in Tomas Etcheverry (28) next, a quarter finalist here last year.
Taylor Fritz had good wins against Darderi and Baez in Madrid, and Tommy Paul beat Medvedev and Hurkacz in Rome. Yet, I don’t see them reaching the second week. They both start against Argentinian players who feel at home on clay.
Who wins it: Djokovic (1)
Upset/Dark horse: Ruud (7)
Watch out for: Seyboth Wild, Zeppieri (Q)
2nd Quarter
Top seeds: Zverev (4), Medvedev (5), de Minaur (11), Rune (13)
Summary: Here we are… We are in Paris. Not that you need a reminder, because this will have been ingrained in our brains by the time the match begins, but…: Rafael Nadal will face Alexander Zverev in the first round of Roland Garros.
Ask me two weeks ago, I would have liked Nadal’s chances more than I do now. But that Rome title (despite being won against a weaker field) must have instilled some confidence in Zverev. After seeing the way Nadal played in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome, it would normally be the saner choice to bet against the king of clay — but you see, he is not normal. He reiterated time and time again that he would only get better by the time Roland Garros begins, that he would give everything and die on the court in Paris and that he would only choose to compete if he feels he can be competitive. Well he is in Paris and that says something.
If you want to get your hopes up even more, you might check his practice set scores against Medvedev, Rune or Korda (all of which he apparently won) or his press conference. Medvedev said that Nadal looked better than he was in Madrid and Rome and that he was happy he wasn’t drawn against him in the first round. The king of clay confirmed Medvedev’s feeling himself:
NADAL: I progressed since Rome, especially in terms of movement. I can run without limitations now. I'm not anxious, I'm focused on trying to play. Maybe I will repeat the disaster of Rome but in my mind I’m going to give myself a chance to be competitive here.
With all that in mind, I’ll go for the safe pick and choose Zverev in that first round only because I don’t have the answer to whether Nadal is fit enough for a best-of-5 battle. But… I’m going for a surprise in the quarter and picking Medvedev as semi finalist simply because he has positive head-to-head records against potential opponents in his section in Koepfer (3-0), Kecmanovic (3-0), Bublik (6-0), de Minaur (6-2). And in quarter finals, I get the sense his opponent would be weary.
Who wins it: Medvedev (5)
Upset/Dark horse: Is putting Nadal under this category disrespectful? In case it is, I’ll leave this one blank!
Watch out for: Navone (31), Darderi, Kecmanovic, Cobolli/Medjedovic (Q)
3rd Quarter
Top seeds: Alcaraz (3), Rublev (6), Tsitsipas (9), Shelton (15)
Summary: Here is the quarter of the seeming favorite for the title, Carlos Alcaraz. I still don’t get how he can be favorite with his recent injury issues that kept his biggest weapon (his forehand) away from him and with Djokovic in the draw; but let’s not dwell on it. In his press conference, he said he is not feeling pain anymore, but that at the same time he is afraid to hit his forehand with 100%. That didn’t come across biggest vote of confidence for me, but of course you never know.
He has a good first round draw against Wolf, but a second round against Draper followed by a third round against Korda (27) could be challenges he’d rather have later on in the tournament. His fourth round opponent could be Shelton (15) or Auger-Aliassime (21).
Upper half of the quarter is full of in-form seeds and floaters. If you thought this could finally be it for Madrid champion Andrey Rublev (6) to break his quarter final curse (0-10), think again. He picked the toughest 4th round draw in Stefanos Tsitsipas (9), who is a former finalist here and won Monte Carlo and reached the finals of Barcelona this year. If they play, their H2H on clay favors the Greek (3-1), but their H2H overall is tied at 6-6.
Altmaier who beat Jannik Sinner in the 2nd round last year could face Tsitsipas (9) in that same round. Pedro Martinez could provide a bigger challenge for Rublev (6) in the 2nd round. These men got some tough draws.
Humbert (17) has a very tough draw facing Sonego first, then possibly an in-form Zhang next. Arthur Fils (29) who is coming off of a top-level Challenger win could face 2 very dangerous Italians back-to-back, Arnaldi and Nardi. To watch section 5, popcorn and soda will be mandatory. My pick to go through this tough quarter is the only man who reached the finals here, Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Who wins it: Tsitsipas (9)
Upset/Dark horse: Shelton (15)
Watch out for: Arnaldi, Martinez, Zhang
4th Quarter
Top Seeds: Sinner (2), Hurkacz (8), Dimitrov (10), Jarry (16)
Summary: Jannik Sinner started his press conference with the following statement that provided some sort of relief for his fans: “The physical shape is not where I want to be. I’m not concerned anymore about my hip. The last few tests we made were positive; that’s why I’m here. I only come here if the hip is in good shape.” The way he took care of his body, played it safe and pulled out of even big tournaments when necessary in the past 18 months is giving me the feeling that indeed if he is here, he is ready to win.
He is drawn to face Eubanks and the winner of Coric/Gasquet in the first 2 rounds. Then we go up a gear in Norrie (32), but the real test begins in round 4. Jarry (16), finalist in Rome last week, or Baez (20), leading the tour in wins on clay this season, could be his opponent there.
The top half of the quarter is weaker with seeds whose favorite surface is not clay, Hurkacz (8) and Dimitrov (10) - and Tiafoe (25) who is generally struggling this year. A big opportunity for surprise semi-finalist Tabilo (24) in this section. Will expectations wear him down early though?
Another blockbuster 1st round match is right here: Andy Murray vs. Stan Wawrinka. Maybe not in form, but definitely in name. Murray who made an incredibly fast recovery after an ankle injury in Miami must have laughed when he learned whom he’d play in the first round. The man who beat him the last two times he played in Paris (2017, 2020). He leads their H2H 13-9, but the 39 year-old Swiss leads their matches on clay, 5-1. Murray is just coming back from injury and probably eyeing Wimbledon; while Wawrinka has not found much form on his beloved surface himself. Nevertheless, we are talking about 2 men who won 3 Grand Slams in the Big 3 era — and their match will be the first night session of the tournament.
Who wins it: Sinner (2)
Upset/Dark Horse: Jarry (16)
Watch out for: Marozsan
DON’T MISS THESE EARLY ROUNDS
ROUND 1
Monfils vs Seyboth Wild 🔥
Cerundolo vs Hanfmann
Fritz vs Coria
Etcheverry vs Cazaux
Davidovich Fokina vs Vacherot
Zverev vs Nadal 🔥🔥💣💣
Cobolli vs Medjedovic 🔥
Kecmanovic vs Monteiro 🔥
Fils vs Arnaldi 🔥🔥
Shelton vs Gaston 🔥
Tabilo vs Bergs
Jarry vs Moutet 🔥
Wawrinka vs Murray (Sunday night session)
POTENTIAL ROUND 2 MATCHES
Alcaraz vs Draper
Shelton vs Diallo
Tsitsipas vs Altmaier 🔥
Fils/Arnaldi vs Nardi
Medvedev vs Kecmanovic/Monteiro
Bublik vs Struff
Rune vs Medjedovic/Cobolli 🔥
Ruud vs Davidovich Fokina 🔥
Musetti vs Seyboth Wild/Monfils 🔥
WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING
This meme is being updated every week this season.
READY… PLAY.
Thanks for reading. I’ll try to post after every round during Roland Garros.
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Wishing everybody a great Roland Garros. You can find me on Twitter here.
— Gökalp
