Jannik Sinner is a Grand Slam champion 🏆
Breaking down the epic Australian Open final where Medvedev impressed with an orthodox style but Sinner said the last word
This men’s final had it all: high level physically, mentally, technically and tactically. Intrigue: Both how it started and how it ended were surprising. And in the end, a new Grand Slam champion. Jannik Sinner came back from a 2 set deficit to beat a tactically-inspired Daniil Medvedev in 3 hours 44 minutes. Here is my match analysis.
MEN’S CHAMPIONSHIP 🏆
Sinner (4) d. Medvedev (3), 36 36 64 64 63
Daniil Medvedev aggression level: ✨ 2015 Federer ✨
The way Medvedev played the last 3 sets of his epic semifinal comeback against Zverev and given he had spent more than 20 hours on court prior to the final, I guess we all expected him to be aggressive in this final. But this aggressive?
He played incredible tennis for almost two entire sets. In the first set, his 1st serve percentage was 86%. He caused Sinner different kinds of trouble too, who didn’t play badly himself (except for below 50% 1st serves in his opening service games).
Medvedev’s fast and flat shots were way below Sinner’s hitting zone, resulting in either Medvedev winners or Sinner forced errors. Here are 2 points:
To me, Sinner could do several things here; mixing in some slices on the backhand, higher acceleration on forehand or slower forehands with higher top spin - spoiler alert, he did all of them, sticking to the ones he felt most comfortable with.
Medvedev constantly had the intent to come forward. He took the ball very early and took control of rallies.
In 72 minutes, Medvedev was up 6-3 5-1. To Sinner’s credit, if he was panicked at this stage, he did not look it. For the last few games, he was already actively testing out different tactics and some started to bear fruit at the next stage.
D. MEDVEDEV: (on the aggressive brand of tennis he played) That’s something I worked a little more in pre-season. […] If we look at Novak or other big champions, when maybe in the beginning of their career they were little bit defensive, all of them that wanted to stay on top of the sport, they tried to do it. I will see if I can try to do it. My volley is very impressive this tournament and I’m happy about it.
Sinner relaxing and coming into the match
Before it got to 5-1 in the 2nd set, Jannik Sinner had already started engaging in different tactics. He used his drop shot 3 times in his first 2 service games - he won the first 2; but the last one was on a break point and he got broken, so he went on to the next tactic. He also started coming to the net.
1-4 down in the second, he attempted to serve and volley twice (once after a first serve fault). His first serve and volley attempt came at break point, and he missed the volley.
Despite the devastating scoreline, he still looked composed. At 5-1, before Medvedev started serving for the set, Sinner’s coach Simone Vagnozzi said: “Let’s try to do something different this game. Even going back on the 2nd (serve return).” It may be this tone of ‘free experimenting’ and ‘letting go of the 2nd set’ that loosened Sinner.
He followed Vagnozzi’s first advice of trying something new, but he did the opposite of the second: He glued himself to the baseline returning Medvedev’s 2nd serves hard. He was now hitting more freely and finally broke Medvedev’s serve. At that point, you could feel the match starting to shift. He eventually also went back on 2nd serve returns and almost broke Medvedev again at 4-5. Medvedev’s 1st serve % had gone down to 50% (from 86% in the first), but he just managed to close it out — only just.
A very tight contest
Starting the 3rd set, Jannik Sinner looked as fresh as ever, both physically and more impressively mentally. His groundstroke speed and 1st serve percentage were increasing. Medvedev’s shots, on the other hand, got slower and he started missing rally shots occasionally.
Despite that, Medvedev got to the point of 4-4 40-40 on Sinner’s serve in this set. There, Sinner missed his 1st serve. He then hit a 175 km/h 2nd serve into the body (+16km/h faster than his match average) avoiding a crucial break point. He was starting to show his clutch side as he did throughout his match vs. Djokovic.
If you give Medvedev a chance to play again any game in the match, I bet it would be his service game at 4-5 in the 3rd. He missed 5 of 8 1st serves and lost long rallies. Sinner hit high 2nd serve returns into the middle, extended rallies and won the set 6-4.
D. MEDVEDEV: I didn’t feel like ‘suddenly when I was 2 sets to 0 up, I stopped playing and went behind the baseline, doing lobs’. I didn’t really do bad mistakes. I think what happened is: He started to play better, a little bit different tactically. [..] I got a little tired physically - but like every other match before. (In those matches), my opponents didn’t take advantage or they also got tired. Jannik didn’t really.
An unknown dimension to one, familiar to the other
In the 4th set, Sinner was getting better and still trying different approaches like going back-behind Medvedev wrong-footing him, and slicing down the line to set up winners. He was also simply hitting amazing winners from the middle of the court.
To Medvedev’s credit, he brought back his 1st serve from the dead. His 1st serve rose to 80% in sets 4 and 5. He created a very real chance: At 3-3 in the 4th, Medvedev had a break point. Enter clutch Sinner: He hit an ace and yelled the loudest come on I have ever heard from him. Then, he followed it up with a forehand winner and another ace to close out the game. Later, he broke Medvedev & clinched it 6-4.
While for Sinner, a deciding 5th set was an additional unknown in his first-ever Grand Slam championship match, it was all too familiar for Medvedev. He was adamant to use whatever was left in his tank, showcasing this during a high-quality 39-shot rally in the first game of the deciding set. How Medvedev played that point, entering his 24th hour on court this tournament, I’ll never know.
Yet, with Medvedev serving at 3-2, Sinner made the final move to break him with aggressive returns (at this point his 1st serve return was getting better) and a passing shot. He had shown the world what he could do over 5 sets in a Grand Slam final. 11 minutes and 2 service holds later, he won the Australian Open.
J. SINNER (end of 2022 when he was losing critical 5-set matches): Yes, in the five sets I'm very competitive, the mental and physical factor counts a lot there. In this sense I believe I have reached an important level of experience which gives me great confidence. Link to article.
A new Grand Slam champion
With that, we have a new Grand Slam champion. That question of “Can he do it over 5 sets against the best?” is answered. After the final, Alcaraz vs. Sinner comparisons have immediately resurfaced, and for good reason. When Sinner’s coach, Darren Cahill, was asked whether the success of Alcaraz had any impact on Sinner, his answer was candid and succinct: “Hell yeah”. I have the same answer to anyone asking whether I’m feeling excited about the future of tennis and this rivalry. Let’s go.
READY… PLAY.
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Until next time!
— Gökalp
