Aus Open Men's Draw 🎾 Picks, Paths, Upset Alerts

Can anyone beat Djokovic? Alcaraz & Medvedev in Bottom Half, Dark Horse Picks, Nice 1st Round Matches 🍿

Jan 12, 2024

Australian Open draws are out! Can you feel the excitement in the air? (I can, so expect a few extra posts in your e-mail this week) The ceremony was streamed live on the tournament’s Youtube channel. Let’s get to it.

SUMMARY

TOP HALF

Djokovic (1) vs. Tsitsipas (7) - (last year’s final 🔥)

Sinner (4) vs. Rublev (5) - (Sinner leads their H2H 4-2)

BOTTOM HALF

Rune (8) vs. Medvedev (3) - (would be first meeting at a Slam)

Zverev (6) vs. Alcaraz (2) - (played at the US Open 2023, Alcaraz won in 3)

Full draw here.

DETAILED LOOK AT THE DRAW

1st Quarter

Top seeds: Djokovic (1), Tsitsipas (7), Fritz (12), Shelton (16)

Summary: Djokovic is not saying ‘Rod Laver Arena feels like a living room to me’ for nothing (he even turned it into a play room this year). For years, without looking at his draw, claiming him as favorite to win it all has been easy. This year, it’s not different. Since 2011, he won 71 of the 74 matches he played at the Australian Open. He did have an issue in his right wrist at the United Cup and lose a match against De Minaur. But he’s also the best in managing physical adversities. In 2021 he had a abdominal tear, and in 2023 he had issues in his left hamstring; both times he found a way to his best physical form and game by the 2nd week. He opens his campaign against someone born in August 2005 (reigning Roland Garros junior champion & qualifier Dino Prizmic), seven months after he played his first Australian Open.

Last year’s finalist, Tsitsipas, will play against Berrettini who is making a comeback. Tsitsipas has reached at least the semis in Australia 4 out of the last 5 times he played. But his form is in question this time around; and he doesn’t have the optimal quarter final draw.

Ben Shelton, who made a big splash reaching the quarter finals here last year ranked 92 in the world, will want a rematch against the world no. 1. They played at the US Open semi finals where Djokovic stole Shelton’s hanging up the phone celebration. I want this Round 4 to realize just to see what happens to the phone next.

Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils are also in this quarter. It’s like 2012 is back.

Who wins it: Djokovic (1)

Upset/Dark horse: None for the semifinal spot.

Watch out for: Murray. Can he win two rounds to set up a match against Djokovic in Round 3, though? Why not?

2nd Quarter

Top seeds: Sinner (4), Rublev (5), de Minaur (10), Khachanov (17)

Summary: Jannik Sinner is probably the most talked about player right now when it comes to the impossible task (beating Djokovic here) because of his form in the last 4 months. After the US Open, he won 20 matches and lost 2 (to Shelton in Shanghai and to Djokovic at the ATP Finals). He beat Djokovic twice in this stretch (and was the only player to do so in 2023) and was 9-1 against the top 10. But the good old and very valid question: Can he do it when it’s best of 5? He has probably never been more ready physically and mentally; so expectations are definitely not misplaced.

Tiafoe has a tough opener against Ćorić (who apparently had his pre-season in Australia). If Tiafoe wins his first two rounds, he might face Khachanov in Round 3 (to whom he lost here last year in the exact same round). Sinner has positive head-to-head records against both players.

Bottom section of this quarter has Rublev (5), de Minaur (10) and, also of note, Korda (29). Korda upset Medvedev here last year in his run to the quarter finals; but he is not playing as well as last year. Who is in form are the other two. In the run up, Rublev won Hong Kong where he was seeded first and de Minaur won 3 matches at the United Cup including his first win against Djokovic. De Minaur has reach the round of 16 at this home slam in the last two years but never went further. Can this year be the one where he finally does it?

Who wins it: Sinner (4)

Upset/Dark horse: de Minaur (10)

Watch out for: Machač, Arnaldi

3rd Quarter

Top seeds: Medvedev (3), Rune (8), Hurkacz (9), Dimitrov (13)

Summary: This quarter is good; it’s very good. Especially its top half is boiling hot. Rune and Hurkacz are top seeds but there are so many high ranked players who are just outside the seeding zone (Djere, Fils and Safiullin, all in top 40, are here). Rune started the year with a final in Brisbane; but the draw has not exactly been kind to him. Nishioka, Cazaux, Fils/Safiullin/Griekspoor are tricky first week opponents. Hurkacz, on the other hand, seems to have found more luck when it comes to his first three projected opponents.

Medvedev, who reached back-to-back finals in Melbourne (2021-22), will want to at least repeat that feat this year. And who can stop him with this game that flourishes at Rod Laver Arena? Last year it was Korda; but this year he must be starting the year with more confidence (after his career high tournament wins in 2023). He has not played a tournament ahead of Australian Open for the first time in his career; but he has enough experience at the majors to compensate that lack of match practice.

In Round 4, Medvedev could play Dimitrov. The 13th seed just won Brisbane in impressive fashion and finished last year with a final showing at Paris Masters (l. Djokovic). Can Dimitrov 2.0 pull another 2017? (lost to Nadal in semis 6-4 in the 5th)

2020 runner-up Dominic Thiem, now unseeded, is also here. He will play Auger-Aliassime (27).

Who wins it: Medvedev (3)

Upset/Dark horse: Dimitrov (13) - can Grishassaince happen at this level? Also Fils is capable of doing great things.

Watch out for: Cazaux, Fils, Safiullin, Ofner

4th Quarter

Top Seeds: Alcaraz (2), Zverev (6), Ruud (11), Paul (14)

Summary: Carlos Alcaraz, world #2 and reigning champion, will play the Australian Open for the 3rd time only. After losing to Berrettini in a 5th set tiebreak in 2022, he didn’t play last year due to injury. Being inexperienced doesn’t necessarily mean bad things for Alcaraz. Before he won Wimbledon last year, he had just career 4 match wins there. Learning curve is steep with this one. But hard courts come with its challenges. In the 2nd round, he could face Sonego (H2H: 1-0 for Sonego) or Evans (they played some close matches). In round 3, he can play a trolling Bublik. Round 4 could be Tommy Paul (H2H: 2-2).

His toughest task could naturally be in the quarter finals against Alexander Zverev. Zverev has one semi-final (2020, l. Thiem) and one quarter-final finish (2021, l. Djokovic) in Melbourne. Last year, the Happy Slam was one of the first tournaments during his comeback when he was not back at his 100%. His form that was a key factor bringing Germany the United Cup could well be dangerous for this whole section. Alcaraz did win their last meeting at a major though! (US Open 2023, in 3 sets)

Tommy Paul is one of last year’s semi finalists. Casper Ruud, the other higher seed in this quarter, won all 3 of his matches at the United Cup against top 30 opponents.

Who wins it: Zverev (6)

Upset/Dark Horse: Draper

Watch out for: Michelsen, Shang, Sonego

DON’T MISS THESE EARLY ROUNDS

ROUND 1

Djokovic - Prižmić (incoming age comparisons [guilty 🙋🏻‍♂️] and short shorts saga)
Mannarino - Wawrinka
Tsitsipas - Berrettini
Sinner - van de Zandschulp 🔥
Tiafoe - Ćorić 🔥
de Minaur - Raonic
Rublev - Seyboth Wild
Rune - Nishioka
Shapovalov - Menšik
Dimitrov - Fucsovics 💪🏼
Ofner - Kokkinakis
Auger-Aliassime - Thiem 🔥
Evans - Sonego

ROUND 2 (possibilities)

Djokovic - Popyrin
Murray - Monfils
de Minaur - Arnaldi
Rune - Cazaux
Medvedev - Ruusuvuori
Alcaraz - Sonego (Sonego leading H2H 1-0 👀)

WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING

Kyrgios on the AO Draw show: (re. Dimitrov-Fucsovics R1) “Oh, that’s tough. It’s a great first round. Jeez, that’s easy on the eyes for the ladies though.”